According to statistics from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the growth rate of auto production in the first half of the year was only 2.48% and 3.35%, which was a drop of 29% from the 32% growth rate in 2010. At the same time, the growth rate of GDP in the first half of the year was also about 7 percentage points lower. For the first time, the China Automobile Association has lowered its growth forecast from 10% to 15% at the beginning of the year and believes that the auto industry will grow at a rate of about 5% this year. Therefore, it is still difficult for the auto market to outperform GDP in the second half of the year.
"Current market conditions are what the government expects"
At present, how to form consensus on the market decline has become the focus of the automotive industry. From the analysis of the economic data of the first half of the national statistics of the previous day, it can be found that the correction of the auto market this year is one of the measures that the country has already arranged for a series of macroeconomic controls.
GDP growth reached 9.6% in the first half of this year. According to Sheng Laiyun, spokesperson of the National Bureau of Statistics, â€œThe main economic indicators are still growing steadily and rapidly, with GDP growing from 9.6% in the third quarter of last year, 9.8% in the fourth quarter, to 9.7% in the first quarter of this year, and 9.5% in the second quarter. The quarterly economic growth rate is basically stable at between 9.5% and 10%.â€ He specifically mentioned that â€œthe sales of automobiles and real estate-related goods slowed down in the first half of the yearâ€ and â€œthis is a normal reflection of the withdrawal of stimulus policies, just like a person. Like running, you can't always sprint with acceleration. He must slow down and run better for the future."
Therefore, including the auto market correction and the like are the results of the country's "active regulation" of the economy, and the adjustment of the growth mode to lower the growth rate. "This is an important policy signal, that is to say, the elimination of auto subsidies is an important factor for the central government to maintain pressure. In the process, the economy has begun to slow down, not the economy to the bottom.â€ Cui Dongshu, an analyst at CUCH, believes that the judgment on the â€œadjusted yearâ€ trend of the auto market is established this year, and the policies discussed in the previous period should be given encouraging signals. It is a wrong interpretation.
"The China Automobile Association has reduced the auto market growth expectation set at the beginning of the year from the original 10%-15% to 5%. This is a good thing. The auto market needs to return to rationality and it needs internal strength." Dong Yang, executive vice president of China Automotive Industry Association, recently He said, â€œI hope car companies will learn to develop in a market environment without stimulus policies and hope related policies can remain stable.â€ This position means that there is little possibility that the state will introduce stimulus policies to the auto industry. Rao Da, the secretary-general of the association, also believes that â€œthe current market conditions are what the government expects, so donâ€™t expect the government to introduce new policies that directly encourage the development of the auto market in the second half of the year.â€
Guiyang may also cause restrictions on the spread of purchases nationwide. At the same time, a consensus has been reached on whether the Beijing auto purchase restriction policy will be abolished. Although the central government does not change the Beijing purchase restriction policy, it does not support other cities to issue restrictions on purchases in principle so as to avoid further impact on the auto market. However, on July 11th, Guiyangâ€™s unexpected â€œrestriction orderâ€ broke this consensus. From July 12 onwards, Guiyang uses Yaohao to distribute license plates. This is the first city to follow the Beijing restriction policy and is the first follow-up second-tier city.
Cui Dongshu believes that this year's purchase restriction will inevitably lead to a more dangerous growth of the auto market next year and in the future. Guiyang is a country with a relatively backward economy. Guiyang's purchase restrictions are likely to cause many more developed cities in the country to follow suit. The spread of restrictions on purchases is easy to expand. If no measures are taken, it will be dangerous to spread.
â– Inventory of the weak market "model car" in the first half of 2011
"Weak market" and "adjusted year" are synonymous with this year's auto industry. In a turbulent market, stereotypes must be broken, old forces must be broken down, and new forces must be integrated. From the "model cars" of a series of passenger car market segments, you can see the subtle changes in the market this year.
Luxury car: BMW accelerated sprint "boss" position 60.8%! On July 7, the BMW Group took the lead in announcing that it had sold a total of 121,614 vehicles in the Chinese market in the first half of the year, an increase of 60.8% year-on-year. BMW's excellent transcripts are just a footnote to China's luxury car market this year.
If we say that the overall automobile market in the first half of the year was â€œcoldâ€, then in stark contrast to it, luxury car segment markets are still shining. In addition to BMWâ€™s record of success, Audiâ€™s luxury car leader Audi sold 141,000 units in half a year, a year-on-year increase of 28%; Mercedes-Benzâ€™s sales volume was 92,200 units, an increase of 52.3% year-on-year. With huge market potential, luxury brands have increased their investment in the Chinese market, which has also allowed the market to enter a multi-pronged phase.
Compared with the high growth of the BMW Group, Audi even continued to maintain its position as sales leader even if the production line was damaged by the suspension of production for 35 days, resulting in a loss of 22,000 vehicles in the first quarter. According to statistics, Audi sold 27,658 vehicles in China in June, and sold a total of 141,000 vehicles in the first half of the year, an increase of 28% year-on-year. Sales of the Audi Q5 have almost doubled, with a year-on-year increase of 97.4%. In addition, Mercedes-Benz sales in China also accounted for 14% of global sales, sales in China was 92,200 units, an increase of 52.3%.
Statistics show that with the increasing investment of major luxury car brands in the Chinese market, Audi's monopoly in the luxury market has undergone a fundamental change. Analysts pointed out that after BMW and Mercedes have achieved substantial growth, they will compete closely with Audi in the market. However, in addition to the advancement of German luxury brands, sales of the second tier of American and Japanese systems have also increased significantly. According to Shanghai General Motors, in the first six months of this year, Cadillac sold 14078 Chinese laborers, a year-on-year increase of 88%.
As the global luxury car market leader, BMW Group has always played the role of "chasing" in China. In the first half of this year, in the rapidly changing market environment, BMW continued to run toward China's â€œbossâ€ with rapid growth. It is understood that in the first half of this year, the BMW Group sold a total of 121,614 BMW and MINI cars in the Chinese mainland market, an increase of 60.8% year-on-year. Among them, the BMW brand sold a total of 113,169 vehicles, an increase of 59.1% year-on-year.
Compact car: The new Fiesta finalized benchmark With the 80 generations becoming the main consumer of the market, and the deep implementation of national energy-saving vehicle subsidies, the compact car market that has been quiet has been surging. Since the beginning of this year, new brands such as New POLO, New Carnival, New Fit, and Love and Europe have continuously upgraded and promoted new products. Dongfeng Yueda Kia (microblogging) K2 will also enter the market, leading the competition for small cars into the high-quality competition stage. According to rough statistics, in the first half of this year, new car sales, small car sales accounted for almost 40% of the overall market, and the growth is mainly from the high-end small car segment market, which has become one of the highlights of this year's car market highlights.
Changan Ford New Carnival has become the new benchmark for this wave of small cars. Ford's classic small car has finally revived in the Chinese market. In the first half of this year, the sales volume of the New Carnival exceeded 37,000 vehicles, and the monthly average remained at a stable level of 6,200 vehicles. Since its launch in March 2009, the new Fiesta has achieved sales of more than 150,000 units. In May of this year, the 2011 new carnival was upgraded and continued to strengthen its competitiveness.
The new Fiesta is the first product of the "One Ford" global strategy and enters China with full localization. Ford's fashion design and its good competitiveness in safety and configuration are all factors that contribute to the success of the new Fiesta. A small car must not only look stylish and dynamic, but also have dependable safety and grade interiors. The new Fiesta is an interpretation of the new laws of the market. In addition, energy-saving and environmental protection technologies have always been a major selling point for mainstream cars. Low-carbon environmental protection is also a lifestyle advocated by high-end cars. For example, as early as the new Fiesta listed in 2009, Changan Ford has constantly pushed its unique product technology in the field of energy conservation. According to reports, the body structure of the new Fiesta uses a large number of ultra-high-strength steels, making the body more sturdy, while also reducing the weight of the body, the aluminum alloy engine makes the body more light and agile. The reduction of body weight not only improves fuel economy, but also makes the handling performance even better. CVVT continuously variable valve timing technology improves the stability and dynamic performance of the engine and enhances the engine's working efficiency. In addition, the electronic-assisted steering system (E-PAS) further improves the fuel economy of the Ford Fiesta.
SUV: CR-V brand appeal has not been reduced According to the data released by the CUCH, the domestic sales of the general passenger vehicle only increased by 5.3% in the first half of this year, but the SUV still maintained an increase of 31.7%, which is the increase of 5 cars and MPV respectively. Doubled and 2 times, so SUV is still the best segment of the current passenger car growth trend. With the arrival of household consumption into the second car or the purchase surge, SUVs, especially urban SUVs, will also be the first choice for family purchase. Entering the SUV market has also become an important current strategy for many international and local brands, which also confirms that the SUV market potential is still very substantial for a long time.
In the boom of SUV development, CR-V, the pioneer of urban SUV segmentation market, is still the focus star. The variable in this yearâ€™s market is that CR-V, as the frontrunner, has encountered the impact of the Japanese earthquake, and it will inevitably cause competitors to recoup. However, from the current perspective, CR-V has not encountered a serious crisis of survival. According to data from the China Automobile Association, the top five SUV sales in the first half were Haval, Tiguan, Honda CRV, IX35, and Tiggo, while CR-V was third with sales of 59,200 units. In May and June, CR-V sales have also recovered to around 5,000. With the recovery of production capacity in the second half of the year, CR-V is expected to recover sales lost in the first half of the year. This proves once again that car models that can create segments and keep pace with the times will be able to accumulate strong brand reputation. Chen Zhijie MPV: Buick GL8 breaks through the luxury blue ocean MPV market's home trend has been still bred, which caused the market is still a clear pattern of oligopolistic competition. However, in the first half of this year, the MPV market expanded in two other directions. One was the upward direction led by the newly-listed Buick GL8 luxury commercial vehicle, and the other was the miniaturization led by Senya and Wuling Hongguang.
According to data released by the China Automobile Association, in the first half of 2011, the top five M PV brands in terms of sales volume were Buick GL8, King Yi, Ruifeng, Senya and Touran, which sold 37,200 vehicles, 35,600 vehicles, 33,200 vehicles and 1.86 respectively. Millions and 12,800 vehicles. In the first half of the year, the above five brands sold a total of 137,400 vehicles, which accounted for 58% of the total sales of MPVs. Buick GL8 and Ruifeng represent the old forces. Jingyi has come out of a big road of differentiation. Senya represents the rise of compact MPV, while Touran is a new challenger to success.
The new Buick GL8 luxury commercial vehicle that was listed at the beginning of the year and the 2011 GL8 commercial vehicle jointly created a record of 37,200 vehicles in the first half of the year, of which the new Buick GL8 luxury commercial vehicle sales accounted for 68%, while the 3.0L high-end model accounted for GL8 total this year. The proportion of sales volume is more than 40%, achieving the successful development of the luxury MPV Blue Ocean market.
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