In 2010, the Middle East is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s largest exporter of petrochemical products. A significant portion—80% of the new capacity—will be directed toward overseas markets, with the Asia-Pacific region, especially China, being a key target. This revelation was shared at a recent petrochemical industry summit hosted by CBI on March 27–28, where experts highlighted the growing influence of Middle Eastern producers in global markets. Over the past decade, Middle Eastern countries have leveraged their abundant oil and gas resources to rapidly expand their petrochemical industries. According to Gulf media, ethylene production in the region surpassed 10 million tons in 2007, accounting for 9% of global output. Saudi Arabia alone produced 7 million tons that year. Industry analysts predict that by 2020, the Gulf’s share of global ethylene production could reach 15%, solidifying its position as a major player in the sector. Some experts even believe that the Middle East's ethylene production capacity will jump from 10% in 2005 to 20% by 2010. The region benefits from strategic geographic location, well-developed infrastructure, and efficient shipping networks, giving it a competitive edge in the international ethylene market. As a result, a surge in Middle Eastern petrochemical exports is expected to hit China hard, particularly in sectors like polyethylene and ethylene glycol. According to Shu Zhaoxia, deputy chief engineer at Sinopec Consulting Company, imports of ethylene derivatives from the Middle East have risen sharply in recent years. For example, in 2006, China imported about 800,000 tons of polyethylene from Saudi Arabia, making up 16.2% of total imports. In 2000, the figure was just 290,000 tons. Ethylene glycol imports saw an even steeper rise, jumping from 146,000 tons in 2000 to 1.54 million tons in 2006, accounting for nearly 38% of total imports by then. Experts warn that despite China’s ongoing demand for certain petrochemicals, the influx of Middle Eastern products will intensify competition for domestic manufacturers. By 2010, Middle Eastern exports of polyethylene to China are expected to reach 2 million tons, filling nearly 50% of the domestic gap. Similarly, ethylene glycol imports could cover 73% of the shortage, while other products may also see similar trends. Looking ahead, Middle Eastern nations plan to boost polypropylene production through methods like olefin conversion and propane dehydrogenation. Between 2005 and 2010, propylene and polypropylene capacities are expected to grow at annual rates of 26% and 29%, respectively. By 2010, the region’s polypropylene output could reach 7.95 million tons per year, with exports potentially reaching 4 million tons annually, mainly targeting Western Europe and Asia.

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