In 2010, the Middle East is expected to overtake the United States as the world's largest exporter of petrochemical products, with 80% of its new production capacity targeted for international markets, particularly in the Asia-Pacific region. This shift is likely to significantly impact domestic companies in China, according to insights shared at a recent CBI-hosted petrochemical industry summit. Over the past decade, Middle Eastern countries have leveraged their abundant oil and gas resources to rapidly expand their petrochemical sectors. For example, in 2007, the Gulf region produced over 10 million tons of ethylene, accounting for 9% of global output. Saudi Arabia alone produced 7 million tons that year. Industry forecasts suggest that by 2020, the Gulf’s share of global ethylene production could rise to 15%, solidifying its position as a leading player in the sector. Experts at the conference were even more optimistic, predicting that the Middle East’s ethylene production capacity would grow from 10% in 2005 to 20% by 2010. With strong geographical advantages, efficient shipping infrastructure, and low production costs, Middle Eastern producers are well-positioned to dominate the global ethylene market. The region is set to become a major supplier of petrochemicals to China, with significant imports expected in key products like polyethylene, ethylene glycol, and polypropylene. By 2010, Middle Eastern exports of polyethylene to China could reach 2 million tons, filling nearly half of the domestic demand gap. Ethylene glycol imports are expected to hit 3 million tons, covering about 73% of the shortfall. These trends signal a growing reliance on Middle Eastern imports, which could put pressure on local manufacturers. According to Shu Zhaoxia, deputy chief engineer at Sinopec Consulting, the volume of ethylene derivatives imported from the Middle East has surged in recent years. In 2006, China imported around 800,000 tons of polyethylene from Saudi Arabia, making up 16.2% of total imports—up from just 290,000 tons in 2000. Similarly, ethylene glycol imports from Saudi Arabia jumped from 146,000 tons in 2000 to 1.54 million tons in 2006, representing a dramatic increase in market share. Looking ahead, the Middle East plans to expand its polypropylene industry significantly. Through processes like olefin conversion and propane dehydrogenation, production of propylene will rise sharply, fueling growth in polypropylene output. Between 2005 and 2010, the region is expected to see an average annual growth rate of 26% in propylene production and 29% in polypropylene. By 2010, the Middle East could produce 8.84 million tons of propylene and 7.95 million tons of polypropylene annually, with up to 4 million tons of polypropylene exported each year, primarily to Western Europe and Asia.

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