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Oil: Prohibition of Exports and Stop Imports

Since November 1, 2007, following a nearly 10% (500 yuan per ton) increase in refined oil prices by the National Development and Reform Commission, China's two major oil companies—Sinopec and PetroChina—are reportedly considering applying for government subsidies. This situation is particularly ironic, as these are among the most profitable firms in the country, yet they are forced to raise prices while seeking financial support from the government. The irony deepens when we consider that oil is both exported and imported. In fact, it’s almost paradoxical that while domestic demand is high, companies still export significant volumes of oil, often at the expense of local supply. To understand this better, let’s look at Argentina’s example. On January 7, the Argentine government banned the export of refined oil to address domestic shortages and stabilize prices. Earlier in the year, the government had also raised export taxes on refined oil from 5% to 35%, and crude oil exports from 45% to 60%. With domestic crude oil priced around $42 per barrel, but gasoline prices kept low, local oil companies were compelled to export to offset losses. In contrast, China has a much lower export tax on crude oil—just 5%—and the tax on refined oil remains unclear. Given such low tariffs, if domestic oil prices remain low, it’s no surprise that Chinese oil companies prefer exporting to make profits rather than prioritizing domestic supply. In the first half of 2007, China exported 1.82 million tons of crude oil and 7.91 million tons of refined oil. These numbers are expected to be confirmed soon by customs authorities. Notably, during the second half of the year, when the Pearl River Delta and Central Plains faced oil shortages, both Sinopec and PetroChina increased their imports. Just a few days ago, sources within Sinopec revealed that due to stabilized market conditions, diesel imports for January have been reduced, and February may see a suspension of diesel imports altogether. Argentina has now banned oil exports, while Sinopec is considering halting diesel imports. It seems like these moves could be driven by real-world conditions in China. However, I remain skeptical about whether Sinopec’s decision to stop importing will truly prevent future shortages. Over the past few years, oil shortages have become almost an annual occurrence in China, despite rising global oil prices. While there are valid reasons behind the price hikes, it's hard to ignore the possibility that the oil giants are not doing enough to ensure stable supply. Instead, they wait until a crisis emerges before holding emergency meetings, increasing imports, cutting exports, and ramping up production. I remember last year when oil prices were between $70 and $80 per barrel. In an article about fuel tax reform, I argued that buying oil isn’t like buying cabbage—it doesn’t spoil easily. Oil should be stored and used gradually. With over $1.5 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, the U.S. dollar is constantly devaluing. If China had purchased $10 billion worth of oil the previous year, it would have made a profit of around $20 per barrel this year. That’s more profitable than investing in Blackstone. The benefits include reducing the loss from dollar depreciation, selling oil at a higher price, and using the saved money to buy more oil in the future—all in one move. For the country, building more storage tanks would be the best approach. We don’t lack steel or resources. Our own underground oil reserves could be tapped for future generations instead of being sent abroad. Ultimately, the logic behind this approach is completely at odds with Sinopec and PetroChina. They operate on a monthly basis, often failing even to plan properly on a quarterly or annual level. Their operations don’t fit into either a planned or market economy—they exist in a monopolistic system that requires price hikes and subsidies. Don’t be fooled by their profitability. Don’t underestimate their waste. They lack even basic business sense. No wonder Warren Buffett decided to sell all his Sinopec shares. He believes that monopolies take too long to affect intelligence and efficiency.

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