Inventory decline demand improved
The rally of Hujiao futures in late June was not only considered by the market as the completion of the short-term bottom form, but also strengthened the confidence of bulls to fight back. The author believes that this round of rubber price rebound is caused by the reduction of global natural rubber supply surplus, but it does not mean that Hujiao will start to rebound in the medium term. You know, there are still many negative factors in the Hujiao market, and the current bull power cannot surpass the opponent.
Tire Demand Off-season: Hujiao's rebound road is full of thorns
The decline in inventory may not be a sign of improvement in demand
The most intuitive manifestation of the pressure relief from the oversupply of global natural rubber that the market recognizes is the decline in inventory. It is true that from the middle of May, rubber stocks in the Qingdao Free Trade Zone have entered a decline cycle. As of June 13, inventory fell to 327,900 tons, a drop of 34,300 tons, a drop of 9.47%. Analysing the reasons for the decline in inventories, rising demand is a possibility, and the shrinking financing is also a possibility.
The sales of domestic autos and heavy-duty trucks showed a decline from the previous month, indicating that the demand for tires has already shifted to the seasonal off-season, and the operating rate of tire companies is bound to be affected. As of the end of June, the operating rate of steel-tire enterprises in Shandong Province continued to decline to 73.2%, and corporate inventories generally rose. The operating rate of semi-steel tire enterprises also dropped to 81.4%.
In the context of weak physical demand and shrinking raw material purchases, the decline in bonded area inventory was mainly due to the fact that some rubber traders were trapped in the mortgage financing market. It is understood that the bank has intensified its investigation into fraudulent lending of credit and its spread has been extended to rubber, which has directly weakened the demand for loan collateral, rubber, and has led some trading companies that are unable to repay their loans to be forced to abandon their ownership of goods and to walk away to auction. Teng Qing reservoir capacity road.
In addition, a futures daily special correspondent learned from a rubber importer that the inventory in Qingdao Free Trade Zone decreased because of the reduction in rubber used for financing, and the range of adhesive water inside and outside reached US$200/ton, which stimulated some traders to transfer domestic rubber. It is also a reason to go abroad. It can be seen that the decline in rubber stocks does not prove that the downstream demand is improving, but that the “sweet dream†implying the need for financing is shattered, which adversely affects the price of rubber.
Dealing with the "double reverse" investigation of US tires
After the U.S. Steel Workers Union filed an application with the U.S. International Trade Commission in early June to require anti-dumping and anti-subsidy investigations on passenger car and light truck tire products from China, the Chinese tire industry will take active measures.
It is reported that Shandong Rubber Industry Association has launched more than 30 tire companies in the area to prepare for the response. At the same time, it also united with the US Tire Industry Association to launch a counter-attack on a new round of tire "double reverse" investigations.
Even so, with the current situation, it is still impossible to win this trade dispute. First, from the perspective of political power, the American Tire Industry Association is clearly not an opponent of the U.S. Steel Workers’ Federation. The latter has strong political power and can control the direction of the U.S. policy. It is considered by the two parties to be votes for the seat of parliamentary elections. warehouse. As early as in 2009 when the United States launched a tire special protection case, the two organizations have been overcompeted. At that time, the American Tyre Industry Association also raised objections. However, the U.S. Steel Workers Association won an overwhelming advantage. In addition, the reason why the US Tire Industry Association “warned†Chinese tire companies was mainly because members of its associations used tire products imported from China in large quantities, and they have intricate interests. Second, although Chinese tire companies are actively preparing materials to prove that Chinese tires do not have a disruptive effect on the US tire market, the latter is “who is not intended to drinkâ€. From this point of view, it is still difficult for the Chinese side to take action to respond to the US “double counter†investigation of tires.
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