Heavy truck market forecast and analysis in the ten months after 2011

The political and economic environment analysis in 2011 is different because China is different from all other countries in the world. Everything is centered on politics and taxation. It focuses on the whole society. Among them, the automobile market is a typical policy auto market, especially in the heavy truck market. In the past two years, the introduction or withdrawal of several policies of the central government to stimulate the auto market will enable the Chinese auto market to change its positive and negative conditions. 2011 was the first year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”. The Central Government had just held an economic work conference at the end of last year, and it has already established a proactive fiscal policy and a steady monetary tightening policy in 2011. The macroeconomic environment will still maintain stable and rapid growth this year, but the growth momentum will slow down.

At the same time, the macroeconomic operation is also facing many challenges, including inflation, price, exchange rate, and labor cost growth. This affects not only the domestic market but also overseas exports. In addition, the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” has established a basic policy of changing the mode of economic development. This will affect the direction of investment and investment in 2011, which will have a greater impact on the demand for the heavy truck market.

Economic restructuring and investment in fixed assets are still the main driving forces for the rapid development of the heavy truck industry. The status and role of the heavy truck industry in the national economy is increasingly evident. It is expected that the growth rate of GDP will remain at around 9% in 2011, and the total increase in the country’s total social investment will remain at around 25%. In the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, the government’s implementation of the 10-year plan for a total investment of about 700 billion yuan in Western Development will promote GDP growth again. The investment in fixed assets, total volume of road freight, and turnover volume should maintain rapid growth. The construction of infrastructure projects will continue to grow, and will continue to have a huge impact on the heavy truck market.

From this year onwards, the state will again increase its efforts in the development of the western region and launch the construction of small towns. With the acceleration of the speed of urbanization and the impact of natural disasters, the state will invest more in local water conservancy construction. In addition, the basic projects related to people's livelihood, the total project construction will not be reduced. The pace of urbanization and the development of the energy industry will continue to accelerate, and relevant supporting infrastructure construction projects will continue to be launched one after another.

Under the combined effect of these favorable superposition factors, it is the rigid support for the expansion of the market capacity of the heavy truck industry and the replacement of vehicles. The good start of the “Twelfth Five-Year” development plan will surely bring about a new leap in the heavy truck industry. Although the growth rate of the heavy truck market is expected to slow down more rationally next year, there is ample room for development in the domestic and foreign markets, as well as large market potential and market structure opportunities. The major heavy truck companies will speed up the development of globalization this year and accelerate the construction of overseas positions overseas.

Global economic recovery China's logistics market will go upwards. The world has gradually emerged from the financial crisis, showing a recovery. The Chinese economy is the main engine of world economic development. The recovery of the world economy will play a leading role in the Chinese logistics market, especially Huge market demand for heavy trucks has skyrocketed. The development of heavy-duty vehicles is closely related to the development of the global economy. The rapid growth of the global economy is bound to drive the development of related industries such as commercial vehicles, especially in the truck industry.

As China's transportation industry moves toward intensification, the role played by large logistics companies is increasingly important. In addition, the profit model of the transportation industry has shifted from the past as the main form of overloading to the current pursuit of transportation efficiency. This puts forward higher requirements on products, which are heavy-duty, power-boosting, intelligent and reliable, especially fuel economy. Sex will become the focus of attention. The domestic logistics market will drive the growth of some long-haul tractors. In addition, the policy of weight-based charging caused changes in profitable models, and some users’ in-use vehicles were quickly updated in 2011, releasing some of the demand ahead of schedule.